Sunday, October 31, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
America's Economy - It is your fault!
That is exactly the state of mind of all Americans .... wanting to blame everyone but ourselves, Our economic woes are solely the fault of Americans , not democrats .... not republicans...., Americans. We are all American before we are democrat or republican. When the housing boom was taking place Democrats made money, Republicans made money, AMERICANS made money ... and everyone was happy. Now that shit has hit the fan, somehow American #1 that made money is to blame but American #2 that also made money is not to blame.
A person must be truly ignorant, to think that their political party provides them a protective veil from liability to this problem or that it allows them to start pointing the finger of blame at a fellow American.
Basically what it all boils down to .... is that people are full of crap. This is an American economy created by Americans for Americans. This is an American problem.
A word to my fellow Americans: Grow up, focus on fixing the problem, not pointing the finger of blame!
A person must be truly ignorant, to think that their political party provides them a protective veil from liability to this problem or that it allows them to start pointing the finger of blame at a fellow American.
Basically what it all boils down to .... is that people are full of crap. This is an American economy created by Americans for Americans. This is an American problem.
A word to my fellow Americans: Grow up, focus on fixing the problem, not pointing the finger of blame!
Monday, October 4, 2010
Delaying the housing recovery
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-America-delays-apf-4073054242.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
"in response to the above referenced article"
Here's to screwing the pooch. Let's drag out the american housing recovery another decade. What bullshit, somehow the banks manage to have all their paperwork in order when it comes to manipulating a customers checking account transactions to maximize overdraft fees on millions of customers everyday, yet somehow they don't have their ducks in a row when it comes ensuring the foreclosure process is being handled correctly.
I personally don't advocate walking away from financial responsibilities, but enough is enough already. Why should john doe homeowner want to talk the bank about defaulting on his/her mortgage or his/her financial situation whatsoever .... seems like that only creates an opportunity for more problems to appear. Homeowner's strategic default is a legitimate option, sorry but i believe in it now. Even if you're someone that knowingly took out a loan you couldn't afford, i say go for it.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander. If banks don't exercise ethics and morals in their business transactions, then the consumer isn't required to exercise ethics or morals or either. It's an eye for an eye.
And hell why not default? As it stands now, your tax dollars over the next 30 if not more years is going to pay the bail outs ... so in essence if you don't default, you the consumer wind up paying double for your home. You pay once when you continue to pay on your home loan, plus now you're paying off the great American bail out (the banks debt and the debts incurred from damage to the economy) too. Here's to paying for your HOME TWICE. You can't get out of taxes, but you can get out of paying your home loan. (hint)
Plus Bank of America wouldn't pay off your debt, why should you pay off Bank of America's debt? Sound's asonine to me. I say pay your taxes, and get America back on track, and take a xerox of your middle finger and fax that to your bank with your mortgage coupon.
If the Banks get a golden parachute, then the American consumer should too. Perhaps the gov't should have just bought up all the bad mortgages and worked out payment plans with consumers, the banks would've gotten their money, the consumer would feel some relief. And then Americans wouldn't be paying twice for their homes! Plus the gov't might make some interest in the process too. We still have that war, you know the one about those weapons of mass destruction that were never found, that we need to pay for.
And let's face it these federal loan programs to help Americans save their homes have performed miserably. They are crap. Hell i wouldn't be surprised if the banks haven't found ways to manipulate these programs to work in the banks favor.
You know on Friday I left a customers office and on the way home decided to stop at Bank of America on the way home and cash the check he gave me for a $25 trip fee(it was a Bank of America Check). You know Bank of America wanted to charge me a $5 fee to cash at $25 check, friggin outrageous if you convert that into a percentage that is a damn 20% FEE. Isn't that loan sharking?
Oh i'm so pissed.
I saw a sign in front of realty companies office yesterday that says "If you want change, re-elect no one." Interpret that statement how you want. Just some food for thought.
"in response to the above referenced article"
Here's to screwing the pooch. Let's drag out the american housing recovery another decade. What bullshit, somehow the banks manage to have all their paperwork in order when it comes to manipulating a customers checking account transactions to maximize overdraft fees on millions of customers everyday, yet somehow they don't have their ducks in a row when it comes ensuring the foreclosure process is being handled correctly.
I personally don't advocate walking away from financial responsibilities, but enough is enough already. Why should john doe homeowner want to talk the bank about defaulting on his/her mortgage or his/her financial situation whatsoever .... seems like that only creates an opportunity for more problems to appear. Homeowner's strategic default is a legitimate option, sorry but i believe in it now. Even if you're someone that knowingly took out a loan you couldn't afford, i say go for it.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander. If banks don't exercise ethics and morals in their business transactions, then the consumer isn't required to exercise ethics or morals or either. It's an eye for an eye.
And hell why not default? As it stands now, your tax dollars over the next 30 if not more years is going to pay the bail outs ... so in essence if you don't default, you the consumer wind up paying double for your home. You pay once when you continue to pay on your home loan, plus now you're paying off the great American bail out (the banks debt and the debts incurred from damage to the economy) too. Here's to paying for your HOME TWICE. You can't get out of taxes, but you can get out of paying your home loan. (hint)
Plus Bank of America wouldn't pay off your debt, why should you pay off Bank of America's debt? Sound's asonine to me. I say pay your taxes, and get America back on track, and take a xerox of your middle finger and fax that to your bank with your mortgage coupon.
If the Banks get a golden parachute, then the American consumer should too. Perhaps the gov't should have just bought up all the bad mortgages and worked out payment plans with consumers, the banks would've gotten their money, the consumer would feel some relief. And then Americans wouldn't be paying twice for their homes! Plus the gov't might make some interest in the process too. We still have that war, you know the one about those weapons of mass destruction that were never found, that we need to pay for.
And let's face it these federal loan programs to help Americans save their homes have performed miserably. They are crap. Hell i wouldn't be surprised if the banks haven't found ways to manipulate these programs to work in the banks favor.
You know on Friday I left a customers office and on the way home decided to stop at Bank of America on the way home and cash the check he gave me for a $25 trip fee(it was a Bank of America Check). You know Bank of America wanted to charge me a $5 fee to cash at $25 check, friggin outrageous if you convert that into a percentage that is a damn 20% FEE. Isn't that loan sharking?
Oh i'm so pissed.
I saw a sign in front of realty companies office yesterday that says "If you want change, re-elect no one." Interpret that statement how you want. Just some food for thought.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Rising Wedge on DJIA and S&P 500, usually a bearish signal.
We have rising wedges on the S&P 500 and the DJIA. Typically this is a bearish indicator. The DJIA is nearing a long term resistance level of 10700. The S&P 500 is nearing a short term resistance level of 1130 and a long term resistance of 1140. The Chaikin Money Flow Indicator on the DJIA has turned down and is looking extremely weak on long and short term basis. Which can also be viewed as a bearish indicator. It is also an indicator of the erosion of dollars being invested in the stock market. Also not a good singal going forward, as this may represent a significant decline in investor confidence. Without new dollars coming into the market, buying capacity is greatly diminished, making any moves up in the market weaker and weaker. Now appears to be a great time to begin unloading any long positions you may have, upside appears to be limited here. I would start checking over your watchlists for possible shorts.
Here is a link to Explanation of Rising Wedge Chart Patterns.
Here is a chart of the DJIA with the Chaikin Money Flow indicator.
Here is a link to Explanation of Rising Wedge Chart Patterns.
Here is a chart of the DJIA with the Chaikin Money Flow indicator.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Solar stocks ... one trick ponies or long term cash cows?
I'm not a big fan of solar as a green energy, I'm not a big fan of how reliant solar companies are on gov't subsidies. How long will that subsidy sugar high last? Even with subsidies, some solar companies have less than stellar quarterly reports. Now picture these same quarterly reports, less the monies derived from subsidies. It's not a pretty picture.
Costs of solar just aren't coming down fast enough, and R & D is getting more expensive, as they are continually coming up with better technologies to harness the suns energy.
What are these companies going to do when the sugar high runs out?
Will solar prices have dropped enough by then, to be affordable for coporate and home consumers without the aide of incentives or rebates?
Ride the wave, trade the solar sector while it's hot and dump it before it cools off, don't stay in the sector long term, FSLR stock performance should be all the evidence you need for a great reason to only trade solar stocks with current market conditions. FSLR 1 year chart below click to enlarge.
Costs of solar just aren't coming down fast enough, and R & D is getting more expensive, as they are continually coming up with better technologies to harness the suns energy.
What are these companies going to do when the sugar high runs out?
Will solar prices have dropped enough by then, to be affordable for coporate and home consumers without the aide of incentives or rebates?
Ride the wave, trade the solar sector while it's hot and dump it before it cools off, don't stay in the sector long term, FSLR stock performance should be all the evidence you need for a great reason to only trade solar stocks with current market conditions. FSLR 1 year chart below click to enlarge.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
FUQI Down for the count??
I still think the future looks bleak here, On june 30 the company annouced that they were unable to produce the filings and gave no guidance on when they could be produced. Second how do you know you're not over paying for FUQI if you buy it now? There are no filings, besides incorrect ones to guage FUQI value.
Even in the great GDP machine called China, there will be companies that will fail ... piss poor management ... nuff said.
What leads you to believe that when and if FUQI does produce the filings that they will be any reasonable measure of FUQI future potential market value?
Has anyone quantified the liabilities facing the company from shareholder lawsuits? FUQI earnings could be potentially ruined for years.
FUQI is the worst house, on the best block in the neighborhood (China), except FUQI was built on a sinkhole and the rising property values in FUQI's neighborhood will not be enough to pull it out of the ground.
Other than as a trade, this is one case where the juice may not be worth the squeeze.
With over 5 million shares traded today (10x avg daily volume), this could signal capitulation in the stock price, and it could be due for a short term bounce. 9 month chart below. Click to Enlarge.
Even in the great GDP machine called China, there will be companies that will fail ... piss poor management ... nuff said.
What leads you to believe that when and if FUQI does produce the filings that they will be any reasonable measure of FUQI future potential market value?
Has anyone quantified the liabilities facing the company from shareholder lawsuits? FUQI earnings could be potentially ruined for years.
FUQI is the worst house, on the best block in the neighborhood (China), except FUQI was built on a sinkhole and the rising property values in FUQI's neighborhood will not be enough to pull it out of the ground.
Other than as a trade, this is one case where the juice may not be worth the squeeze.
With over 5 million shares traded today (10x avg daily volume), this could signal capitulation in the stock price, and it could be due for a short term bounce. 9 month chart below. Click to Enlarge.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Stock Market Erosion of Money
$INDU - Daily Candlesticks: "
via StockCharts.com
"
The computers algorithms could really hypothetically trade us down to 0.
Without new money coming to market essentially they same money is getting recycled in the market over and over again. Now this "recycled money" drove the dow to 11,200 april highs. Problem is that the "recycled money" buying capacity diminished as stock prices rose on greater volatility and less and less volume. Which inherently makes your support levels weaker due to the fact that as the market went higher, positions in securities on a volume or number of shares of owned actually got smaller. Therefore there is less to "defend" at support levels.
We are clearly seeing this erosion take place in the market. As evidenced by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator on a current a one year chart.
Until new money is put to work in the market, this erosion will surely continue in the market.
What we can infer from this, is that, essentially with current levels of liquidity, there is only enough money at play to take the market from 6500 to 11,200. And that another possible major move down in the market is looming.
People will also begin to take money out of the market, out of 401ks , and mutual funds. This will also exacerbate the move down too.
via StockCharts.com
"
The computers algorithms could really hypothetically trade us down to 0.
Without new money coming to market essentially they same money is getting recycled in the market over and over again. Now this "recycled money" drove the dow to 11,200 april highs. Problem is that the "recycled money" buying capacity diminished as stock prices rose on greater volatility and less and less volume. Which inherently makes your support levels weaker due to the fact that as the market went higher, positions in securities on a volume or number of shares of owned actually got smaller. Therefore there is less to "defend" at support levels.
We are clearly seeing this erosion take place in the market. As evidenced by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator on a current a one year chart.
Until new money is put to work in the market, this erosion will surely continue in the market.
What we can infer from this, is that, essentially with current levels of liquidity, there is only enough money at play to take the market from 6500 to 11,200. And that another possible major move down in the market is looming.
People will also begin to take money out of the market, out of 401ks , and mutual funds. This will also exacerbate the move down too.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Current stock market situation
So here's my insight on the current market situation(s).
-The Kass Scenario-
On July 6th, Mr. Kass a renowned perma bear, calls the market bottom. And says S&P should rally to 1100 within two weeks.
That is exactly what happened. What does this guy know that we don't?
Answer: Everything, he is a true industry insider.
Second, I checked with HARRY POTTER today and he is still in possession of his crystal ball, he has not let it out of his sight, and he has not anyone use it in the past millennium.
So that must mean that Mr. Kass is indeed a genius, right? No, not at all, it could just mean that he has a lot of clout on wall street and his buddies are helping him manipulate the market. Think about it, his market bottom call by itself caused some shorts to go cover. Don't ever underestimate the power of a headline.
Or third, maybe the guy is just observant. Perhaps he noticed that the new quarter for financial institutions was starting, and that by default buying in the market would start happening. Perhaps he noticed that this buying even it may not be strong or heavy buying, would be at least enough buying activity to make it harder for the shorts to knock the market down anymore and the shorts which have been enjoying an easy ride down, would start buying to cover on any signs of life in the market.
He is no genius.
-The Volume situation-
Low volume signals weakness in this recent move up. In my opinion this is just a small rally in a overall declining market. Look at most money flow indicators, Since August 6th of 2009 as the market went higher, most money flow indicators have had a steep decline. As a matter of fact the last time the DJIA was in the 10200 - 10400 price range around 6/3/2010, the Chaikin Money flow indicator was substantially higher than it is today. Please see the chart attached to this e-mail.
No to mention S&P 50 day moving proved to be heavy resistance today, as we closed just below it, and the DJIA ran into resistance at it's 200 day moving average today.
Technically things are looking very weak right now, shorting the market at the end of the day today based on technical could prove to be a nice move.
-I'm looking for selling on the news to resurface as a trend -
The expectations of great profits is already baked into stocks, Look at what AA did today, it traded mostly flat today, up a measly .12 cents. That's pretty weak price performance considering all the shorts that covered today on the decent quarterly. And CSX sold off today on their good quarterly report.
For trades if this trend become more perdominate, I would be looking to short companies on the day of their earnings for a quick trade, as most companies announce earnings in afterhours I would short them at the end of the regular trading day right before the after hours earnings report comes out.
-The Kass Scenario-
On July 6th, Mr. Kass a renowned perma bear, calls the market bottom. And says S&P should rally to 1100 within two weeks.
That is exactly what happened. What does this guy know that we don't?
Answer: Everything, he is a true industry insider.
Second, I checked with HARRY POTTER today and he is still in possession of his crystal ball, he has not let it out of his sight, and he has not anyone use it in the past millennium.
So that must mean that Mr. Kass is indeed a genius, right? No, not at all, it could just mean that he has a lot of clout on wall street and his buddies are helping him manipulate the market. Think about it, his market bottom call by itself caused some shorts to go cover. Don't ever underestimate the power of a headline.
Or third, maybe the guy is just observant. Perhaps he noticed that the new quarter for financial institutions was starting, and that by default buying in the market would start happening. Perhaps he noticed that this buying even it may not be strong or heavy buying, would be at least enough buying activity to make it harder for the shorts to knock the market down anymore and the shorts which have been enjoying an easy ride down, would start buying to cover on any signs of life in the market.
He is no genius.
-The Volume situation-
Low volume signals weakness in this recent move up. In my opinion this is just a small rally in a overall declining market. Look at most money flow indicators, Since August 6th of 2009 as the market went higher, most money flow indicators have had a steep decline. As a matter of fact the last time the DJIA was in the 10200 - 10400 price range around 6/3/2010, the Chaikin Money flow indicator was substantially higher than it is today. Please see the chart attached to this e-mail.
No to mention S&P 50 day moving proved to be heavy resistance today, as we closed just below it, and the DJIA ran into resistance at it's 200 day moving average today.
Technically things are looking very weak right now, shorting the market at the end of the day today based on technical could prove to be a nice move.
-I'm looking for selling on the news to resurface as a trend -
The expectations of great profits is already baked into stocks, Look at what AA did today, it traded mostly flat today, up a measly .12 cents. That's pretty weak price performance considering all the shorts that covered today on the decent quarterly. And CSX sold off today on their good quarterly report.
For trades if this trend become more perdominate, I would be looking to short companies on the day of their earnings for a quick trade, as most companies announce earnings in afterhours I would short them at the end of the regular trading day right before the after hours earnings report comes out.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
BP Slapped in the face, Obama Speech Tonight, Sell into todays strength
Exxon Mobil and Chevron CEO have both issued public statements, essentially saying that his gulf oil disaster was completely preventable and BP was negligent.
All I can say is wow!! I expected everyone in the oil industry to stay quiet, and not point the finger at one of their own.
BP CEO said today that no one has lost their job at BP because of the gulf oil disaster. Really what the heck? Perhaps BP CEO should be fired for gross negligence because no has been fired.
O'Bama has a speech tonight where he is expected to possibly announce that congress will push for a removal of the $74 million dollar liability cap. He may also announce that he doesn't just want the $74 million dollar liability cap increased, he may pursue having the liability cap removed completely.
If that occurs the cost of capital will increase tremendously for all oil companies.
To sum this up, for all you traders out there I would recommend selling some if not all positions into today's strength. The oil sector may drag the entire market down tomorrow, based on O'Bama's speech tonight. I wouldn't risk owning much ahead of his speech.
All I can say is wow!! I expected everyone in the oil industry to stay quiet, and not point the finger at one of their own.
BP CEO said today that no one has lost their job at BP because of the gulf oil disaster. Really what the heck? Perhaps BP CEO should be fired for gross negligence because no has been fired.
O'Bama has a speech tonight where he is expected to possibly announce that congress will push for a removal of the $74 million dollar liability cap. He may also announce that he doesn't just want the $74 million dollar liability cap increased, he may pursue having the liability cap removed completely.
If that occurs the cost of capital will increase tremendously for all oil companies.
To sum this up, for all you traders out there I would recommend selling some if not all positions into today's strength. The oil sector may drag the entire market down tomorrow, based on O'Bama's speech tonight. I wouldn't risk owning much ahead of his speech.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
The end of the mutual fund, the beginning of a trader's only stock market??
Right now the stock market is a trading market. I expect it to remain that way for years, mutual funds will be forced to change their ways and become more nimble, otherwise investor confidence will erode as mutual funds will surely remain victims of a fast paced market. Mutual funds have charters which prohibit them from being nimble and control how quickly they can move money around in the market, and what kinds of securities they can invest in. These charters are outdated and have not evolved with the market. The slow and steady tortoise may not win this race in the long run. ONE of the major GAME changers are Leveraged ETF's. They are contributing immensely to market volatility. And I am sure there will be more and more of them to come in the future, unless Jim Cramer gets his way and they are banned.
For those of you that don't know HOW LEVERAGED ETF's work, they are essentially giant trading platforms. And these ETF's are aimed at DAILY returns, not monthy or yearly. These ETF's actively trade every single day. Increased trading leads to increased volatility. Take for instance the XLF, it is comprised of a basket of financial stocks, and those are the stocks fund managers actively trade all day long to achieve 3X returns. So that means we have the massive buying power of these ETFs just day trading the heck out of the basket of stocks it represents.
There is actually a strategy for sideways markets, that essentially amounts to shorting etf sisters ((FAS/FAZ or ERY/ERX) for example) and the net result is a profit. I suggest everyone look at this http://www.darwinsfinance.com/short-etf-inverse-leveraged-direxion-3x/ and keep it in mind for sideways markets and sectors. It appears to be a dead simple strategy and looks to be very compelling to try.
These days leveraged ETF's, high frequency trading, and program trading are dominating the markets. And could lead to the eventual demise of convential buy and hold investment products such as 401k, mutual funds, and the likes.
These are the days of actively managed funds. I'd feel safer in a actively managed day trading/short term trading fund, than the conventional products we are all used to and grew up with.
Just some food for thought, when is the last time any of you checked to see if a stock you have a position in is actively day traded by a 3X leveraged ETF?
Evolve with the markets, or succumb to them.
I hope this helps everyone understand what is happening to your stocks.
For those of you that don't know HOW LEVERAGED ETF's work, they are essentially giant trading platforms. And these ETF's are aimed at DAILY returns, not monthy or yearly. These ETF's actively trade every single day. Increased trading leads to increased volatility. Take for instance the XLF, it is comprised of a basket of financial stocks, and those are the stocks fund managers actively trade all day long to achieve 3X returns. So that means we have the massive buying power of these ETFs just day trading the heck out of the basket of stocks it represents.
There is actually a strategy for sideways markets, that essentially amounts to shorting etf sisters ((FAS/FAZ or ERY/ERX) for example) and the net result is a profit. I suggest everyone look at this http://www.darwinsfinance.com/short-etf-inverse-leveraged-direxion-3x/ and keep it in mind for sideways markets and sectors. It appears to be a dead simple strategy and looks to be very compelling to try.
These days leveraged ETF's, high frequency trading, and program trading are dominating the markets. And could lead to the eventual demise of convential buy and hold investment products such as 401k, mutual funds, and the likes.
These are the days of actively managed funds. I'd feel safer in a actively managed day trading/short term trading fund, than the conventional products we are all used to and grew up with.
Just some food for thought, when is the last time any of you checked to see if a stock you have a position in is actively day traded by a 3X leveraged ETF?
Evolve with the markets, or succumb to them.
I hope this helps everyone understand what is happening to your stocks.
Monday, May 31, 2010
S&P still forming inverse head and shoulders, China stocks time to shine?
Stock picks and charts, S&P 500, VXX, FXE, EDC, ERX, SPRD, NX, APKT, QSFT, BCSI, FUQI, CAAS, TSTC, FMCN, HMIN, CAGC. FXI, HAO, and EWZ ETF's.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Global Meltdown
Credit to C.Green at (www.mymoneyuniversity.com)
As previously communicated, the Euro zone has expanded into a global
meltdown. Keep in mind that they do not have the facility (like our Federal
Reserve) to resolve liquidity and confidence problems by independently
printing more money to "satisfice" the investment community. Risk is being
taken off the table more and more, and any rises in the markets can be
mostly attributed to short-covering (how I characterized Friday's rise) and
bottom fishing. My suggestions is to stay net to at least 50% cash, and
ONLY buy on BIG dips in sectors we like in China and dividend stocks in the
consumer non-cyclical sector in the US, using wide bands at support levels
and dollar-cost-averaging.
The meltdown can't last forever, and eventually the market will recognize
some very good values. I believe the risk is lower in China with the best
growth level and growing middle-class. Keep your thinking caps on and don't
disengage from the market. There is as much to learn from down markets
about risk and reward as there is about up markets. Continue to build and
maintain your watch lists for the best opportunities when you deploy cash.
Down markets can be effectively managed with these strategies. I would
suggest that you revisit the Play To Win section of the ebook (The Money
Game) for perspective the current market climate.
If you have stocks in your 401k or 403b, I would reiterate to be in all cash
or at least 50% in cash to mitigate the current market climate. Our basic
tenet in the Play To Win Club and IFP is to actively manage your accounts to
reduce risk and increase potential returns -- and WE DO NOT ascribe to "buy
and hold." This is not your father's stock market anymore, and will MUST
adapt our investment strategy to the zeitgeist of our time. Let the market
go where it wants to go, just stay ahead of the curve and don't try to
guess. Refer to the ebook or call me if you have questions about what you
should be doing now in accordance with you own circumstances.
As previously communicated, the Euro zone has expanded into a global
meltdown. Keep in mind that they do not have the facility (like our Federal
Reserve) to resolve liquidity and confidence problems by independently
printing more money to "satisfice" the investment community. Risk is being
taken off the table more and more, and any rises in the markets can be
mostly attributed to short-covering (how I characterized Friday's rise) and
bottom fishing. My suggestions is to stay net to at least 50% cash, and
ONLY buy on BIG dips in sectors we like in China and dividend stocks in the
consumer non-cyclical sector in the US, using wide bands at support levels
and dollar-cost-averaging.
The meltdown can't last forever, and eventually the market will recognize
some very good values. I believe the risk is lower in China with the best
growth level and growing middle-class. Keep your thinking caps on and don't
disengage from the market. There is as much to learn from down markets
about risk and reward as there is about up markets. Continue to build and
maintain your watch lists for the best opportunities when you deploy cash.
Down markets can be effectively managed with these strategies. I would
suggest that you revisit the Play To Win section of the ebook (The Money
Game) for perspective the current market climate.
If you have stocks in your 401k or 403b, I would reiterate to be in all cash
or at least 50% in cash to mitigate the current market climate. Our basic
tenet in the Play To Win Club and IFP is to actively manage your accounts to
reduce risk and increase potential returns -- and WE DO NOT ascribe to "buy
and hold." This is not your father's stock market anymore, and will MUST
adapt our investment strategy to the zeitgeist of our time. Let the market
go where it wants to go, just stay ahead of the curve and don't try to
guess. Refer to the ebook or call me if you have questions about what you
should be doing now in accordance with you own circumstances.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
WallStreet Journal Article on Crude Oil Futures is Dumbfounding...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100513-714137.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope
That is a link to the article . Here is what I don't Get in the article...
"Nationwide, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are at their highest since December, and inventories at Cushing have risen for eight straight weeks, putting the amount of oil in storage at the hub at 29% above year-earlier levels."
"It was just last week that crude oil hit an 18-month highs $87.15 a barrel. Since then concerns about the impact of Europe's debt woes on global growth and a broad aversion to risky assets have shaved more than $13 off futures prices."
Seriously , what the heck.
So this journalist is telling me that Crude inventories have been rising for the past 8 weeks and the market didn't care about rising inventories and kept bidding up the price of crude as it hit a high for the year last week. Now all of the sudden the market gives a crap about rising crude oil inventories because of the EU situation??
I'm a buyer of this dip in crude oil. The market hasn't cared about rising inventories for the past 8 weeks(and for all of 2009), and when this sell off is over the market will go right back to not caring about rising crude inventories and oil prices will rise again.
Am I missing something here, short of the EU going into a double dip recession, EU demand for oil won't diminish that much. I'm thinking the author of this article must have shorted oil recently and needs oil futures to go down more.
I'd like to thank him for giving me good oil stocks on the cheap now that are sure to benefit from recovering USA consumption and increases in China and emerging markets consumption.
Maybe I'm missing the point of his article.
What the heck???
That is a link to the article . Here is what I don't Get in the article...
"Nationwide, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are at their highest since December, and inventories at Cushing have risen for eight straight weeks, putting the amount of oil in storage at the hub at 29% above year-earlier levels."
"It was just last week that crude oil hit an 18-month highs $87.15 a barrel. Since then concerns about the impact of Europe's debt woes on global growth and a broad aversion to risky assets have shaved more than $13 off futures prices."
Seriously , what the heck.
So this journalist is telling me that Crude inventories have been rising for the past 8 weeks and the market didn't care about rising inventories and kept bidding up the price of crude as it hit a high for the year last week. Now all of the sudden the market gives a crap about rising crude oil inventories because of the EU situation??
I'm a buyer of this dip in crude oil. The market hasn't cared about rising inventories for the past 8 weeks(and for all of 2009), and when this sell off is over the market will go right back to not caring about rising crude inventories and oil prices will rise again.
Am I missing something here, short of the EU going into a double dip recession, EU demand for oil won't diminish that much. I'm thinking the author of this article must have shorted oil recently and needs oil futures to go down more.
I'd like to thank him for giving me good oil stocks on the cheap now that are sure to benefit from recovering USA consumption and increases in China and emerging markets consumption.
Maybe I'm missing the point of his article.
What the heck???
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Emerging Markets currently underperforming develped markets, but are they ripe for a comeback?
After being red hot for virtually all of 2009, Emerging Market stocks have been grossly under-performing the DOW and S&P 500 since the beginning of this year.
At the beginning of this year most Emerging Market stocks were priced beyond perfection. China started to apply the brakes on growth. The U.S. started to show signs of life. And investors flocked to U.S. stocks which were still attractively valued.
There has been a lot of uncertainty in the market recently, mostly arising from the potential collapse of the Euro. Mature Developed markets are getting more and more squeamish. And the DOW's volatility has risen so much recently, it's somewhat acting like a high beta low float stock. Put together all of that and couple it with most U.S. stocks being near their 52 weeks highs and "poof" the market has taken money off the table. The U.S. markets were ripe for a pullback.
At the beginning of this year most Emerging Market stocks were priced beyond perfection. China started to apply the brakes on growth. The U.S. started to show signs of life. And investors flocked to U.S. stocks which were still attractively valued.
There has been a lot of uncertainty in the market recently, mostly arising from the potential collapse of the Euro. Mature Developed markets are getting more and more squeamish. And the DOW's volatility has risen so much recently, it's somewhat acting like a high beta low float stock. Put together all of that and couple it with most U.S. stocks being near their 52 weeks highs and "poof" the market has taken money off the table. The U.S. markets were ripe for a pullback.
All of the above could lead to the eventual flocking of investors back into Emerging Market stocks. Most of which are now down significantly off of their 2009 highs and attractively valued.
Here is a Y-T-D comparison chart of emerging markets compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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