Stock Market Erosion of Money

$INDU - Daily Candlesticks: "

via StockCharts.com
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The computers algorithms could really hypothetically trade us down to 0.

Without new money coming to market essentially they same money is getting recycled in the market over and over again. Now this "recycled money" drove the dow to 11,200 april highs. Problem is that the "recycled money" buying capacity diminished as stock prices rose on greater volatility and less and less volume. Which inherently makes your support levels weaker due to the fact that as the market went higher, positions in securities on a volume or number of shares of owned actually got smaller. Therefore there is less to "defend" at support levels.

We are clearly seeing this erosion take place in the market. As evidenced by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator on a current a one year chart.

Until new money is put to work in the market, this erosion will surely continue in the market.

What we can infer from this, is that, essentially with current levels of liquidity, there is only enough money at play to take the market from 6500 to 11,200. And that another possible major move down in the market is looming.

People will also begin to take money out of the market, out of 401ks , and mutual funds. This will also exacerbate the move down too.

Current stock market situation

So here's my insight on the current market situation(s).

-The Kass Scenario-

On July 6th, Mr. Kass a renowned perma bear, calls the market bottom. And says S&P should rally to 1100 within two weeks.
That is exactly what happened. What does this guy know that we don't?

Answer: Everything, he is a true industry insider.

Second, I checked with HARRY POTTER today and he is still in possession of his crystal ball, he has not let it out of his sight, and he has not anyone use it in the past millennium.

So that must mean that Mr. Kass is indeed a genius, right? No, not at all, it could just mean that he has a lot of clout on wall street and his buddies are helping him manipulate the market. Think about it, his market bottom call by itself caused some shorts to go cover. Don't ever underestimate the power of a headline.

Or third, maybe the guy is just observant. Perhaps he noticed that the new quarter for financial institutions was starting, and that by default buying in the market would start happening. Perhaps he noticed that this buying even it may not be strong or heavy buying, would be at least enough buying activity to make it harder for the shorts to knock the market down anymore and the shorts which have been enjoying an easy ride down, would start buying to cover on any signs of life in the market.

He is no genius.

-The Volume situation-

Low volume signals weakness in this recent move up. In my opinion this is just a small rally in a overall declining market. Look at most money flow indicators, Since August 6th of 2009 as the market went higher, most money flow indicators have had a steep decline. As a matter of fact the last time the DJIA was in the 10200 - 10400 price range around 6/3/2010, the Chaikin Money flow indicator was substantially higher than it is today. Please see the chart attached to this e-mail.

No to mention S&P 50 day moving proved to be heavy resistance today, as we closed just below it, and the DJIA ran into resistance at it's 200 day moving average today.

Technically things are looking very weak right now, shorting the market at the end of the day today based on technical could prove to be a nice move.

-I'm looking for selling on the news to resurface as a trend -

The expectations of great profits is already baked into stocks, Look at what AA did today, it traded mostly flat today, up a measly .12 cents. That's pretty weak price performance considering all the shorts that covered today on the decent quarterly.  And CSX sold off today on their good quarterly report.

For trades if this trend become more perdominate, I would be looking to short companies on the day of their earnings for a quick trade, as most companies announce earnings in afterhours I would short them at the end of the regular trading day right before the after hours earnings report comes out.