Sunday, September 19, 2010

Rising Wedge on DJIA and S&P 500, usually a bearish signal.

We have rising wedges on the S&P 500 and the DJIA. Typically this is a bearish indicator. The DJIA is nearing a long term resistance level of 10700. The S&P 500 is nearing a short term resistance level of 1130 and a long term resistance of 1140. The Chaikin Money Flow Indicator on the DJIA has turned down and is looking extremely weak on long and short term basis. Which can also be viewed as a bearish indicator. It is also an indicator of the erosion of dollars being invested in the stock market. Also not a good singal going forward, as this may represent a significant decline in investor confidence. Without new dollars coming into the market, buying capacity is greatly diminished, making any moves up in the market weaker and weaker. Now appears to be a great time to begin unloading any long positions you may have, upside appears to be limited here. I would start checking over your watchlists for possible shorts.

Here is a link to Explanation of Rising Wedge Chart Patterns.

Here is a chart of the DJIA with the Chaikin Money Flow indicator.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Solar stocks ... one trick ponies or long term cash cows?

I'm not a big fan of solar as a green energy, I'm not a big fan of how reliant solar companies are on gov't subsidies. How long will that subsidy sugar high last? Even with subsidies, some solar companies have less than stellar quarterly reports. Now picture these same quarterly reports, less the monies derived from subsidies. It's not a pretty picture.

Costs of solar just aren't coming down fast enough, and R & D is getting more expensive, as they are continually coming up with better technologies to harness the suns energy.

What are these companies going to do when the sugar high runs out?

Will solar prices have dropped enough by then, to be affordable for coporate and home consumers without the aide of incentives or rebates?

Ride the wave, trade the solar sector while it's hot and dump it before it cools off, don't stay in the sector long term, FSLR stock performance should be all the evidence you need for a great reason to only trade solar stocks with current market conditions. FSLR 1 year chart below click to enlarge.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

FUQI Down for the count??

I still think the future looks bleak here, On june 30 the company annouced that they were unable to produce the filings and gave no guidance on when they could be produced. Second how do you know you're not over paying for FUQI if you buy it now? There are no filings, besides incorrect ones to guage FUQI value.

Even in the great GDP machine called China, there will be companies that will fail ... piss poor management ... nuff said.

What leads you to believe that when and if FUQI does produce the filings that they will be any reasonable measure of FUQI future potential market value?

Has anyone quantified the liabilities facing the company from shareholder lawsuits? FUQI earnings could be potentially ruined for years.

FUQI is the worst house, on the best block in the neighborhood (China), except FUQI was built on a sinkhole and the rising property values in FUQI's neighborhood will not be enough to pull it out of the ground.

Other than as a trade, this is one case where the juice may not be worth the squeeze.

With over 5 million shares traded today (10x avg daily volume), this could signal capitulation in the stock price, and it could be due for a short term bounce. 9 month chart below. Click to Enlarge.